Mark Tuminello

Finance & Business Professional

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Global Trade Growth Slowing…

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There has been some celebration in the news regarding the recovering US economy, with the GDP gaining some momentum again. A recent post on The Economist points out that any celebration ought to be tempered with a more macro view of things.

The blow to optimism comes on the heels of an updated forecast from the World Trade Organization, which reduced the prediction for international trade growth in 2014 from 4.6% to 3.1%. 2015 was also cut from 5.3% to 4%. It’s a significant reduction with large global implications, but the article points out that even the new forecast is optimistic. Trade from January to June of this year was 1.8% – which means in order to meet the prediction of 3.1%, we need a serious rebound before December.

The trouble is coming from South America. Sure, Asia’s exports are growing much faster than it’s imports, which isn’t helpful, but South American exports actually fell by nearly 1%. Imports were even worse, falling 3.4%.

Struggling and developing economies saw smaller growth rates than the larger powers, which means the pendulum of market share is still swinging out in terms of market share.

What’s strange is that we enjoyed a tremendous period of growth in 2010, which we haven’t matched yet. This is all a result of a slowing of growth in emerging markets. The lack of Chinese demand for imports isn’t helping, either. Then there are the geopolitical issues that have direct effects on the global economy, such as the tough winter in the US in the first quarter, the Russian sanctions, and the rise in Japanese sales tax.

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Hellman & Friedman raises $10 billion

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Originally posted on Fortune:

Private equity giant Hellman & Friedman has raised nearly $10 billion toward its next flagship fund, according to a regulatory filing.

It is unclear if this represents a final close for the fund, which already is larger than any other Hellman & Friedman has raised in its 30-year history. Bloomberg had reported earlier this year that the San Francisco-based firm was seeking to raise a total of $10.25 billion, compared to the $8.4 billion pool it collected just before the financial crisis in 2007.

Hellman & Friedman’s most recent deal was an acquisition of California-based supermarket chain Grocery Outlet Inc., which reportedly was valued north of $1.1 billion. Other current portfolio companies include Catalina Marketing, HUB International, Kronos, Scout24 and Sheridan Healthcare.

The firm declined comment.

Sign up for our daily newsletter on deals & dealmakers: GetTermSheet.com

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eBay CEO: Why we’re spinning off PayPal

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Originally posted on Fortune:

Seven months after making the case against spinning off PayPal to Fortune, eBay CEO John Donahoe is singing a different tune.

On Tuesday, eBay announced plans to spin-off online payments service PayPal into a separate, publicly traded company. Doing so, according to eBay, will help both businesses take advantage of new opportunities to grow in challenging markets.

The move comes months after activist investor Carl Icahn waged a public campaign for a PayPal spin-off. Icahn, who owns 30.8 million shares of eBay and is expected to make $180 million from today’s news, argued PayPal would grow faster and therefore be more valuable if cleaved from its parent company. (In March, Donahoe made the case that eBay and PayPal were stronger businesses together.)

But in an interview with Fortune on Tuesday, Donahoe, said the proxy fight earlier this year did not sway eBay’s board. Rather, the about-face came after…

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A teenage chef, a planetary geologist and a wordnik walk into TEDYouth: A look at the speaker lineup

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Originally posted on TED Blog:

TEDYouth is a free event just for middle and high school students. This year, it takes place on Saturday, November 15, at the Brooklyn Museum in New York City, where more than a dozen speakers will explore “Worlds Imagined,” sharing big ideas and inspiring insights on topics that range from science to design, food to technology, entertainment to education.

Check out the full TEDYouth 2014 speaker lineup »

Students in New York City, apply to attend. Applications close on October 12 at 11:59pm ET »

Below, just a few of the speakers you’ll get to see.

Chef Flynn McGarry, just 15-years-old, supervises plating at EUREKA, his monthly supper club that now has a cult following.

Chef Flynn McGarry (center) is 15 years old. He supervises plating at EUREKA, a monthly supper club that now has a cult following. Photo: DiningWithFlynn.com

Ecologist Eric Sanderson carefully re-envisioned what New York looked like in 1609, when it was called Mannahatta, "Island of many hills," by Native Americans. Now, he has launched the Welikia Project, to do the same for New York City’s other four boroughs. Ecologist Eric Sanderson carefully re-envisioned what New York looked like in 1609, when it was known as Mannahatta, “Island of many hills.” Now, he has launched the Welikia Project, to do the same for New York…

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fuckyeah-longisland:

The one and only Oheka Castle.
P.S: If anyone has any pictures of anything on Long Island they’d like me to post, please submit! It’s hard scouring the internet for things by yourself. 

fuckyeah-longisland:

The one and only Oheka Castle.

P.S: If anyone has any pictures of anything on Long Island they’d like me to post, please submit! It’s hard scouring the internet for things by yourself. 

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centuriespast:

Nelson Wounded at Tenerife, 24 July 1797
by Richard Westall
After the Battle of Cape St Vincent, 14 February 1797, Nelson was stationed off Cadiz and was ordered to take possession of the town and harbour of Santa Cruz in Tenerife, where Spanish treasure ships were reported to be lying. He immediately set sail with three ships of the line, three frigates, and a cutter and was joined by a fourth frigate and a bomb vessel en route. After several failed attempts Nelson decided upon a direct assault on Santa Cruz by night, aiming for the central castle of San Cristobal, where the Spanish general staff were based. Nelson commanded the attack, leading one of six divisions of boats, the other five being commanded by Captains Troubridge, Miller, Hood, Waller and Thompson. At 10.30pm on 24 July, the British seamen and marines met around the ‘Zealous’ where they formed into six divisions and were roped together. With muffled oars they began the two-mile row to the mole. However, the initial boat-landings went wrong when many of them were swept off course and the element of surprise was lost. During his attempt to land Nelson was about to disembark when he was hit just above the right elbow by a musket or similar ball fired as grapeshot, which shattered the bone and joint. The arm was amputated aboard the ‘Theseus’ that night. The attack ground to a halt and the British force that landed at the harbour negotiated a truce with the Spanish Governor under which they returned to their ships. The Spanish also offered hospital facilities for the wounded.
Date painted: 1806
Oil on canvas, 86.3 x 71.1 cm
Collection: National Maritime Museum

centuriespast:

Nelson Wounded at Tenerife, 24 July 1797

by Richard Westall

After the Battle of Cape St Vincent, 14 February 1797, Nelson was stationed off Cadiz and was ordered to take possession of the town and harbour of Santa Cruz in Tenerife, where Spanish treasure ships were reported to be lying. He immediately set sail with three ships of the line, three frigates, and a cutter and was joined by a fourth frigate and a bomb vessel en route. After several failed attempts Nelson decided upon a direct assault on Santa Cruz by night, aiming for the central castle of San Cristobal, where the Spanish general staff were based. Nelson commanded the attack, leading one of six divisions of boats, the other five being commanded by Captains Troubridge, Miller, Hood, Waller and Thompson. At 10.30pm on 24 July, the British seamen and marines met around the ‘Zealous’ where they formed into six divisions and were roped together. With muffled oars they began the two-mile row to the mole. However, the initial boat-landings went wrong when many of them were swept off course and the element of surprise was lost. During his attempt to land Nelson was about to disembark when he was hit just above the right elbow by a musket or similar ball fired as grapeshot, which shattered the bone and joint. The arm was amputated aboard the ‘Theseus’ that night. The attack ground to a halt and the British force that landed at the harbour negotiated a truce with the Spanish Governor under which they returned to their ships. The Spanish also offered hospital facilities for the wounded.

Date painted: 1806

Oil on canvas, 86.3 x 71.1 cm

Collection: National Maritime Museum

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Art of Data Interpretation

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Mark Tuminello CanadaWhat happens when a single government has two federal departments using the same economic numbers and come up with completely different analysis?

This is what happened in Canada this weekend. In October, specialists at Employment and Social Development Canada interpreted financial numbers and concluded that the middle class in Canada are in serious trouble. They even called the idea of the ‘Canadian Dream’ a myth.

It wasn’t good news for the country, who is dealing with similar economic woes as their friends to their south. Opposition parties looking to cash in on some new government seats jumped on the analysis, pointing out that some real change is needed if the middle class hopes to ever come out of the recession in one piece.

But along the way, many cabinet ministers dismissed the reports, calling them misleading.

Nearly a year later, Finance Canada has come up with their own analysis of the same numbers, which actually paints a very positive picture of the state of the middle class in Canada. They even go so far as to say that once they control for the changing composition of Canadian families, income has actually grown significantly since the seventies.

From the outside, it’s hard not to see this as anything more than political parties trying to score points before a federal election, which is coming up in a year in Canada.

But when it comes to finance and economics, there’s often more than one way to skin a cat. Getting raw data requires technical skill and precision. What is done with that data is another story. Interpreting data is an art, and a flawed one at that. How does one separate their strongly held political or social beliefs when interpreting the national economy.

In the world of finance, it’s considerably easier to avoid being 100% incorrect about assumptions or theories…but the art of the work is still fragile.

Consider the complexity of the findings of the Canadian data. One report notes that wages haven’t risen much in the past few decades, and that means families are struggling to keep up with inflation. The other report notes that the major influx of women in the labor force, continually rising since the seventies, more than made up for the stagnant wages, with more families earning more on the household level.

While there are often two ways to look at data, there is sometimes a an incentive to skew analysis toward your own benefit. That accusation is being thrown around in Canada at the moment. The incentives are there to cherry-pick data – the question is whether the reports were truly filed in good faith.

It seems the thing to do now would be to send the data to third-party organizations in the hopes of getting an unbiased perspective. Or maybe they’ll choose another federal department…

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Tech Education

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mark tuminello tech classroomImprovements in technology and information systems are transforming classrooms on all collegiate levels. Unlimited online resources, software programs and social media websites are improving the way we do research and the efficiency in which we communicate with one another, from the classroom to the entire globe. The opportunities to gain and access rich content for research and assignments gives students quite a competitive advantage. In order to keep up with these changes, universities are developing strong technological foundations in which students can learn the necessary skills and gain an edge in today’s job market upon their graduation.

One huge trend that has been adopted by most educational institutions is the introduction of online classes or hybrid courses. These hybrid courses are hosted and taught online and streamed in classroom lectures. Computers and advancements in information systems allows students to access online courses whenever and wherever they are, without missing a beat. A recent study conducted by the Ambient Insight Premium Report, found that since August of 2012 more that 30 million college or graduate students have attended one or more than one class online. Courses online are not only beneficial to full time students, but also for professionals who like the flexibility of working and still continuing their education. As technology infrastructures continue to improve, universities are able to offer their students and professors a wide variety of applications that can increase the efficiency of online and virtual classrooms. However, the frequency in which technology rewed itself makes it difficult for most schools to keep up with these changes and in many cases fall short in delivering these resources.

Social media web sites, like Facebook and Twitter, are also being used more frequently by professors and students in order to communicate more efficiently with one another outside of the classroom setting. Given that students are always “plugged in”, professors will post assignments, share lecture materials and ultimately reach their students faster and more efficiently though social media. Universities themselves are using Facebook and Twitter to reach out to students on a larger scale, gain feedback on programs and establish a market base for their products and upcoming events. Establishing strong relationships between professors and students is extremely important for universities in reaching the highest levels of success for their heir graduating classes. Employers seek recent graduates that are well educated and up to date on current technology, which is why it’s extremely beneficial for universities to invest in information systems and update their technological infrastructure as much as their funds will allow.

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